The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen.

The shift could deepen ties between India and Nigeria, though competition for Nigerian barrels is rising as the Dangote Refinery ramps toward full capacity and sources more crude domestically.

For years, India has balanced close partnerships with both Washington and Moscow, even throughout Ukraine war. Trump is finally demanding it picks a side