Wall Street has a poor track record when it comes to forecasting the future performance of the stock market. Since 2020, there has been a 17-percentage-point discrepancy between analysts' median year-end forecast for the S&P 500 and where the index actually finished each year, according to Goldman Sachs.

U.S. stocks are drifting ahead of a momentous week full of potential flashpoints, but other markets are already moving more sharply, including a jump for oil prices and drops for Treasury yields